Friday 1 February 2008

Calne Lickhill Ward By-election Analysis

In the cold light of day I can now analyse last night’s result in Calne’s Lickhill Ward and after my initial disappointment things aren’t quite so bad. If all of the support we had received across the ward whilst campaigning had been converted into votes we would have done so much better – where were you all? I am not sure if my disappointment was at the BNP result or with the general lack of interest. I know it was raining hard for much of the day and also very cold but when less than 800 people of nearly 3,200 vote you have to ask whether these people are worth fighting for. It is also sad that of the 400 postal votes issued only 215 were returned so even when spoon-fed the electorate can’t be bothered. It seems that 2,400 people in Lickhill Ward have no interest in how their town is managed. I just hope that when I next hear someone whinging they voted because if they didn’t they will get short shrift from me that’s for sure. I just wish they had seen the lady from North Cote, (who had told me incidentally, whilst I was out canvassing that she was a socialist), struggle from her invalid car to painfully walk, using crutches, across a badly pot-holed access road and car park, battling against the wind and rain, into the polling station to cast her vote. It would put them to shame. Even though she probably didn’t vote for me I certainly salute her courage. God bless you, madam!

Anyway, the analysis:-

May 2007

Average votes for each party were:-

BNP = 91 (8%)
Conservatives = 427 (37%)
Lib Dems = 271 (24%)
UKIP = 348 (31%)

Jan 2008

Average votes for each party were:-

BNP = 84 (11%)
Conservatives = 256 (32%)
Greens = 23 (3%)
Lib Dems = 278 (35%)
UKIP = 150 (19%)

The percentage vote for the Conservatives and UKIP dropped whilst those for the Lib Dems and the BNP increased.

In the case of UKIP there vote all but crumbled, Ellie Bland achieved 356 votes in May but only 150 last night so where everyone kept reminding me that UKIP are falling apart, they were quite right and the evidence is there for all to see. Not forgetting, of course, that the seat became vacant as a result of a UKIP councillors resignation.

The turnout dropped from 35% to 25%, so even accounting for that it seems it was a very bad day indeed for UKIP and if I initially felt disappointed then they must be absolutely gutted. Having said that I wonder where the UKIP vote would have gone if they had not stood – the BNP perhaps! Wishful thinking perhaps, but I think UKIP has had it’s day and should they eventually see the light and join us then who knows where we will go. Bring on the general election!!

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

good luck mate, maybe next time
l read your blog alot,l'll be rooting for you

our time is coming,hang in there all is not lost, our vote went up,l believe we would of got a great vote had ukip not stood

Epona said...

Hello Robert,
Sad to hear that you weren't elected, but it is a good sign that your percentage was up!
What a lazy lot, not bothering to go out and vote, when will they learn that living in a beautiful rural village, will not protect them from the encroachment of Islam?
All the very best for a BNP furture Nationwide, because it WILL happen!
I don't know much about UKIP, but the folk who vote for them are perhaps the'ditherers', who would like to vote BNP but are still influenced by the media. Just a guess:-)

The Green Arrow said...

A good assessment Robert.

I believe that UKIP is just a state approved safety valve.

You were also trying to waken a sleeping town that does not truly understand what is coming.

We must continue to try and alert them.

Soon you will be hearing things on the street like "I wish I'd voted for your lot". It always happens.

Anonymous said...

Robert, sorry to learn you didn't make the breakthrough, and get elected.
You have done well though, simply bringing all these vital issues to peoples attention is worthwhile.
Weather might have been bad, but no real excuse for such apathy, and poor turnout.
Keep up the good work.

Norman.